Brexit, British Government, David Davis, Michel Barnier

My #Brexit Blog: of gold and gorillas

DD9E17AD-FCA5-4574-98B2-7CA25C82D730It was a week when reality bit, and bit very hard. Brexiteer illusions about a world of easy free trade deals beyond EU membership took a heavy hit when the US slapped a 219% tariff on Bombardier, the Canadian plane maker, over alleged illegal state aid, putting 4,000 jobs in Northern Ireland at risk.

Then, on Friday, the economics editor of SKY TV reported that close on 10% of UK exports was made up of gold which was simply recycled through London. As most of this went to non-EU countries, such as Switzerland, India and China, it had the effect of understating the value of UK manufacturing exports to the EU. The figure is closer to 50%, rather than the 44% quoted by the Brexiteers. The UK does not export as much to the rest of the world as it thinks it does.

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Brexit, British Government, Michel Barnier, Negotiating, Theresa May

After #Brexit #FlorenceSpeech: Has Anything Changed?

This piece was written on September 24, 2017

857546_1UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s speech in Florence last Friday was designed to unlock the stalled Brexit negotiations between the European Union (EU) and the UK over an agreement on the departure of the UK from the EU. In her speech May said essentially four things:

1. She repeated that the UK would leave the EU at midnight on March 29th, 2019. On March 30th the UK will no longer be a member of the EU, the Single Market and the Customs Union.

As we have said before, this is a decision that can only be reversed by a vote in the House of Commons and agreed to by the European Union, though as we have also noted the EU would be unlikely to allow the UK to simply cancel its exit notice and return to the status quo ante. New conditions for continued membership would be required. Continue reading

Article 50, Brexit, British Government, Brussels, Negotiating, Theresa May

Brexit really does mean #Brexit…. doesn’t it?

This blog was written on Fri Sept 15th.

FlorenceUK  Prime Minister, Theresa May, is to fly to Florence next week to deliver a speech billed as an “important intervention” on the Brexit negotiations. Why Florence? Why not the European Parliament? Florence, a once great banking centre in Europe, its glory days long behind it. A role model for London, post-Brexit perhaps.

A spokesman for May said, “The Prime Minister wanted to give a speech on the UK’s future relationship with Europe in its historical heart. The UK has had deep cultural and economic ties spanning centuries with Florence, a city known for its historical trading power. As the UK leaves the EU we will retain those close ties. As the Prime Minister has said on many occasions, we are leaving the EU, not Europe.” He added that the speech was an opportunity to “update on Brexit negotiations so far.”

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Article 50, Brexit, British Government

“Repeal and Replace”: Difficult to do on both sides of the Atlantic #Brexit

Written Sunday September 3rd 2017:

Capture“Repeal and replace” makes for a great political slogan. For Republicans in the US, who minted the phrase, it meant repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”). In January of this year, President Trump told ABC news that “he wanted “good coverage at much less cost” and “a much better healthcare plan at much less money.” Over recent months President Trump has found that while “repealing” might possibly be easy, replacing is a lot harder. To date, the Act has been neither repealed nor replaced.

Now, Brexiters in the UK never used the phrase “repeal and replace”, but that is what they meant.

“Repeal” the UK’s membership of the European Union and “replace” it with a relationship with the EU at much less cost and with much better benefits.

That is, in effect, the prospectus they offered the people of the UK. As Boris Johnson, now the Foreign Secretary, put it, the UK “could have its cake and eat it”.

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Brexit, British Government, Negotiating, UK Labour Party

#BREXIT: All Changed, Changed Utterly

Written on August 28th 2017:

Commenting on the Irish insurrection against the UK in 1916, the poet W.B. Yeats penned the words:

All is changed, changed utterly
A terrible beauty is born

StarmerThe announcement on Sunday August 27, by way of an article in The Observer, that the Labour Party now backed a transition arrangement for the UK after it leaves the EU in March 2019 changes everything, utterly.

Writing in The Observer, Keir Starmer (photo), the Labour spokesperson on Brexit said:

Labour would seek a transitional deal that maintains the same basic terms that we currently enjoy with the EU. That means we would seek to remain in a customs union with the EU and within the single market during this period. It means we would abide by the common rules of both.

If Labour can push this through it restores for business the vital prospect of greater stability in trading terms with the EU and labour market free movement for at least 3 or 4 years ahead.

How this is to be achieved is not stated but if it involves the complete acceptance of all EU rules, including free movement and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, then finding a way to do this should not be that difficult. The full article can be found here. Presumably, Labour also accepts that after 2019 the UK will no longer have any involvement in EU governance, no commissioner, no MEPs and no European court judge.

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Brexit, British Government, Brussels, Negotiating

The Impossibility of a Peter Pan #Brexit

This was written on August 14th, 2017

“Take care, lest an adventure is now offered you, which, if accepted, will plunge you in deepest woe.”                                                                                                         J.M. Barrie

This will not end well for the simple reason that it is impossible for it to end well. When you promise the impossible it is impossible for it to end well.

The current UK Conservative government has led the British people to believe that leaving the European Union (EU) will come at no economic cost and that UK citizens will be able to trade with, and travel to, EU countries much as they can now. Brexit has been defined as the UK exclusively controlling its borders and immigration, walking away from the jurisdiction of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU), ending payments to the EU for membership of the bloc, and being free to negotiate its own trade deals with non-EU countries. After Brexit, the UK will be outside the EU’s single market and customs union.

But, the narrative continues, the UK will be able to replicate all the benefits of the single market and the customs union through a “bold and ambitious” trade agreement with the EU.

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Brexit, British Government, Data transfers

The UK, Data Protection and #Brexit

Written August 9th 2017

gdpr-euroThis week, the UK government published details of its Data Protection Bill which will enshrine the EU’s General Data Protection Regulations (GDPR) into UK law (here).

The new legislation will become effective in May 2018, when the GDPR comes into force across Europe. The potential penalties for breaching the new data law are severe: up to 4% of global turnover or €20m, whichever is the greater. The EU recently hit Google with a fine of €2.4 billion over alleged market dominance abuse, so national data regulators won’t be shy of imposing big fines on companies that break the new laws.

Unfortunately, the documents published by the UK government with the announcement of the new Bill has precious little to say about Brexit and data flows. The only real reference reads:

“Unhindered flow of data, therefore, is essential to the UK forging its own path as an ambitious trading partner. That is why the government will be seeking to ensure that data flows between the UK and the EU, and also appropriately between the UK and third countries and international organisations, remain uninterrupted after the UK’s exit from the EU. Cooperation with the UK’s law enforcement and security partners, both in Europe and beyond, will also remain a priority.”

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