Article 50, Brexit, Michel Barnier, Negotiating, Theresa May, UK Labour Party

From “Cakeism” to “Half-Bakeism” on #Brexit

This blog was written on Feb 25th, 2018:

Chequers meeting

“The fact that the UK cabinet can spend entire days debating its preferred Brexit choices while completely ignoring what is actually negotiable with the EU never ceases to amaze” wrote John Peet, lead for the Economist on Brexit, in a Twitter post.

The post came after the UK “war cabinet” spent a day at the prime minister’s country house in Chequers trying to work out the “end state” of the Brexit process. Trying to find an answer to the question: Just what commercial and trading relationship does the UK wants with the EU in the future?

In the words of Donald Tusk, president of the EU Council, the answer they arrived at was “pure illusion”.

While we won’t know for certain what the cabinet decided until the Prime Minister, Mrs. May, makes a major speech next Friday setting out their plan, leaks suggest that the cabinet has decided that not only does it want to have its cake and eat it, it now also wants to own a half-share in the bakery as well.

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Brexit, Irish border, Michel Barnier, Negotiating, Theresa May

#Brexit: The UK Government’s BATNA Dilemma

Koji Tsuruoaka, Japan's ambassador to Britain, speaks outside 10 Downing Street after a meeting between Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May and senior members of Japanese companies, in LondonIt seems to us that a great deal of press and other comments about the supposed disunity within the UK cabinet about Brexit frames it slightly wrong. The cabinet is not split over what it wants from the Brexit discussions. It knows exactly what it wants.

The problem arises over what to do when it doesn’t get what it wants. and it already knows that you can’t always get what you want. The real problem is that the cabinet, in the language of professional negotiators, cannot agree on its BATNA, its Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement.

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Article 50, Brexit, Brussels, Juncker, Michel Barnier, Negotiating, Theresa May

Not so Much a Marathon… More a Triathlon #Brexit

Written on Friday Dec 8th:

may junckerEarly this morning, Friday, December 8, the EU and the UK announced that they had reached terms on the three Article 50 issues which cover: the UK’s ongoing financial obligations to the EU; the rights of EU citizens in the UK; and issues relating to Ireland.

The EU Commission said that the agreement reached was sufficient to allow it to recommend to the EU Council (heads of government) next week that the talks proceed to phase 2, namely discussions on the “framework” of the UK’s future relationship with the EU.

Reading the various documents that have been released today it is hard not to come to the conclusion that the UK appears to have accepted the EU’s terms on all three issue. Outstanding payments from the UK to the EU are not conditional on any sort of future trade deal and will continue long into the future as commitments made by the EU28, of which the UK was a part, fall due. On citizens’ rights the European Court will have a role in defending the rights of EU citizens resident in the UK for eight years after Brexit, a political lifetime. On Ireland, the default position is no hard border.

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Article 50, Brexit, David Davis, GDPR, Irish border, Michel Barnier, Theresa May

Still a (very) Long and Winding #Brexit Road Ahead

This Briefing was written on 3rd Dec 2017

7EEC154E-1C26-4BA9-BD46-6E7E326308E2As we write this Briefing, early on Sunday Dec 3, it would appear that the EU and the UK are moving towards a position where the EU Council (heads of government) at its next meeting on December 14/15 will be able to declare “sufficient progress” in the Article 50 discussions to date to allow them to move on to the next stage, which will focus on the “framework” of the UK’s future relationship with the EU.

However, as one diplomat put it, until we see what has been agreed “on paper” rather than “in the papers” it is wise to withhold judgement. But it does seem that the logjam on citizens’ rights has been broken by the UK conceding an ongoing role for the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) in upholding the rights of EU citizens resident in the UK after Brexit.

The UK has also agreed to meet all its outstanding financial obligations to the EU, estimated at around €50 billion net, while accepting that this money does not buy a future trade deal of any type, even if, for the moment, UK cabinet ministers are not exactly making that clear to MPs in the House of Commons. Continue reading

Brexit, British Government, Michel Barnier, Negotiating, Theresa May

After #Brexit #FlorenceSpeech: Has Anything Changed?

This piece was written on September 24, 2017

857546_1UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s speech in Florence last Friday was designed to unlock the stalled Brexit negotiations between the European Union (EU) and the UK over an agreement on the departure of the UK from the EU. In her speech May said essentially four things:

1. She repeated that the UK would leave the EU at midnight on March 29th, 2019. On March 30th the UK will no longer be a member of the EU, the Single Market and the Customs Union.

As we have said before, this is a decision that can only be reversed by a vote in the House of Commons and agreed to by the European Union, though as we have also noted the EU would be unlikely to allow the UK to simply cancel its exit notice and return to the status quo ante. New conditions for continued membership would be required. Continue reading

Article 50, Brexit, British Government, Brussels, Negotiating, Theresa May

Brexit really does mean #Brexit…. doesn’t it?

This blog was written on Fri Sept 15th.

FlorenceUK  Prime Minister, Theresa May, is to fly to Florence next week to deliver a speech billed as an “important intervention” on the Brexit negotiations. Why Florence? Why not the European Parliament? Florence, a once great banking centre in Europe, its glory days long behind it. A role model for London, post-Brexit perhaps.

A spokesman for May said, “The Prime Minister wanted to give a speech on the UK’s future relationship with Europe in its historical heart. The UK has had deep cultural and economic ties spanning centuries with Florence, a city known for its historical trading power. As the UK leaves the EU we will retain those close ties. As the Prime Minister has said on many occasions, we are leaving the EU, not Europe.” He added that the speech was an opportunity to “update on Brexit negotiations so far.”

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Brexit, British Government, Brussels, Negotiating

The Impossibility of a Peter Pan #Brexit

This was written on August 14th, 2017

“Take care, lest an adventure is now offered you, which, if accepted, will plunge you in deepest woe.”                                                                                                         J.M. Barrie

This will not end well for the simple reason that it is impossible for it to end well. When you promise the impossible it is impossible for it to end well.

The current UK Conservative government has led the British people to believe that leaving the European Union (EU) will come at no economic cost and that UK citizens will be able to trade with, and travel to, EU countries much as they can now. Brexit has been defined as the UK exclusively controlling its borders and immigration, walking away from the jurisdiction of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU), ending payments to the EU for membership of the bloc, and being free to negotiate its own trade deals with non-EU countries. After Brexit, the UK will be outside the EU’s single market and customs union.

But, the narrative continues, the UK will be able to replicate all the benefits of the single market and the customs union through a “bold and ambitious” trade agreement with the EU.

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